Theresa May was going to be a loser whatever happened in the French presidential election Sunday night.
While Emmanuel Macron is someone she can do business with, the British prime minister must also regret the loss of the weakened President François Hollande, who has existed on the Brexit sidelines.
Even the incoming president’s difficulties â like the current lack of a parliament majority to back his presidency â are a problem rather than an advantage for Theresa May.
If Macron cannot obtain a governing majority, his presidency will be forced to focus on areas he does control, like Brexit negotiations. And he’s been prepared to talk tough in the past. âWhat is going to happen is not ‘taking back control’: itâs servitude,” he told Monocle magazine in March.
The thing Downing Street fears most is a united EU, with its own forward-looking plans, treating Brexit like a tiresome detail. Macronâs election makes that united EU more likely.
The former economy minister also wants to renegotiate the Le Touquet border treaty that allows British police and border guards to work on French soil, and keep most unwanted migrants from ever reaching British shores.
Itâs a good, convenient deal for Britain. Itâs less clear what France gets, aside from the practical headache and moral quandary of informal refugee camps on its soil.
Macronâs position means Britain will either have to pay a new price â politically or financially â to keep the deal. Otherwise Macron will literally put a political problem on Mayâs doorstep.
France can also hardly have picked a better ambassador than a former banker who built a political movement like a startup to woo back its expat population or tempt some of Londonâs finance and tech talent to Paris.
Then thereâs the question of who Macron brings into his government and to key posts in Brussels. Whether itâs advisers like Jean Pisani-Ferry, MEPs like Sylvie Goulard, or progressive members of the stellar French civil service, they are certain to know the EU inside out, further widening the experience divide between U.K. negotiators and the EU.
There is plenty of opportunity for Macronmania to stumble. Theresa May needs it to if her own expected landslide victory on June 8 is to have the Brexit impact she hopes for.
This insight is from POLITICOâs Brexit Files newsletter, a daily afternoon digest of the best coverage and analysis of Britainâs decision to leave the EU. Read todayâs edition or subscribe here.